“We have an amazing
opportunity right now to shape a world where everyone can do well,” said Andy
Stern, former president of the SEIU (Service Employees International Union).
This claim came near the end
of Stern’s talk at Town Hall on January 7, 2014, which wrapped up “Reclaiming
Prosperity,” a 10-month series about the fortunes of the middle class. Town
Hall’s promotion of the event said Stern would talk about “how shifts in labor
demographics and business attitudes, coupled with technology advances such as
robotics in manufacturing, are shifting the way we think about labor, jobs, and
prosperity.”
Town Hall’s downstairs hall
was almost full when I got there. Chairs were added. I saw no one I knew but
was eager to learn more about how the economy works, always hoping to learn
more about why much of the work I care most about doesn’t fit well into the
economy we have. As I say that, I’m thinking of parent’s work, artists’ work, the
work of fostering civic dialog, caretaking at all levels, theoretical and
intellectual work, and lots more. It has always seemed to me that there is so
much necessary work to do that just doesn’t line up with where jobs are, which
seems especially crazy since so many people need jobs.
Facts and trends
Stern used most of his formal
talk to give facts and describe trends about jobs, wages, and labor. It wasn’t
a pretty picture.
• From the
1950s to the 1980s, economic growth was evident in three areas: increased productivity,
higher wages, and more jobs. From the 1980s to now, productivity has increased,
but wages are flat or falling, and jobs have fallen off. This is the
“wage-less” and “job-less” growth that I’ve heard about.
• Middle-class
jobs are being replaced by low-wage jobs. In 2009, 24% of the population held
low-wage jobs. Stern says that’ll increase to 48% by 2020.
• The
higher wages that used to follow BA degrees are going down.
• Trends
like these are not going to turn around.
• A big
driver of these changes is the rapid advance of technology where “Moore’s Law” seems
to hold, that is, computer power doubles every two years. A 2013 University of
Oxford study of the impact of technology suggests that nearly half of all U.S.
jobs are at risk from computerization and automation.
• The structure of work is also changing. Carl
Camden, CEO of Kelly Services, says that today 30% of the workforce does not
have full-time employment; they – we –
are independent contractors, part-time or adjunct employees, temporary workers,
entrepreneurs, consultants. Ours will increasingly be a free-agent economy. Within
the next decade, Stern said, that 30% will become 50%.
A big leap
Then Stern made what seemed
like a big leap. He talked of the silver
lining.
We are living through the
most revolutionary economic change ever, he said. There have been only two
before. The agricultural revolution had a transition that took 3,000 years. The
industrial revolution’s transition took 300 years. The current revolution –
moving from national to global, from muscle work to mind work, and with an
unprecedented technological revolution – has taken just 30 years, and is far
from being over.
The real challenge for us, he
said, is to figure out how to use a new freedom from economic cares. Despite
the fact that our political system is “completely misaligned” to take it on, we
have the opportunity now to create an economy that allows the pursuit of work
“in line with self-actualization.” How do we shape a world where everyone can
live wisely and well? This assumed, I thought, that increasing productivity and
technological advances would generate enough resources to allow this to happen.
“Something big is happening.”
He stressed that no one is exempt from this. He believes that we must, and
will, come together on this. “This is the future. Let’s plan for it.”
Big ah-ha’s came
next
After he closed his formal
remarks and the questions began, ideas really flew.
After a few questions digging
into his facts and figures, one speaker kicked off a larger discussion of the
“silver lining.” How does Stern imagine
the world of self-actualization really working? For most of us, our income is
tied to our jobs. Where does the money come from, how do we get there, how is
wealth shared?
How do we get there?
Stern said we need to
separate three things: jobs, work, and income.
He talked, for instance, of
the importance of aligning our economy toward work that is needed and valuable
to society, like child care and reducing our carbon footprint. How can we do
that? For one thing, we need to find a way to provide a baseline income to
people who do that valuable work. What people need, he said, is income. The
evidence is that with income people seem to have time to do the important work
of caring for their children in the crucial first years of their lives, getting
an education for themselves, and taking care of each other.
We have to answer a value
question: whose work should gain income? Earlier in the last century, we had a
debate about whether a woman who stays home to care for her children was
“working.” We need to answer that again.
Another audience member asked
what should be done about the incomes of the top percent. Stern’s concern for
the poor, he said, means that, for him, “raising the floor is more important
than capping the top.” We can’t continue to rely on a consumption economy.
Instead we should try things like giving tax breaks to individuals, rather than to corporations, to reduce their carbon
footprint. We should also pay attention to experiments like the oil dividend
that Alaska gives all its citizens – income not tied to jobs. It was a
conservative idea to avoid giving the dividend to the government by giving it
directly to the people.
Require Google to pay for your data?
He also referred to Jaron
Lanier who has proposed that Amazon, Google, Facebook and other big companies
that use your data should be pay a royalty whenever they use it – a tiny amount
each time, but it could add up. That data is actually yours and has value. All
income can’t keep coming from jobs as we’ve known them. His 3-5 year-old niece
and nephew won’t think about work the way we do. We (referring to his generation…
and mine) often found our social environments through our work, our jobs. Young
people won’t. They won’t find their actualization through their jobs.
Another questioner wondered
if Stern’s vision implies that benefits should be disconnected from jobs. Do we
need to push less hard to load benefits onto jobs? Yes, indeed, Stern said. We’ve
been putting too much into the employer/employee relationship. For one thing, so
many kids and others these days have many jobs and no single employer. We can’t
rely on employers for the benefits we all need.
What do we want?
More from Stern: A certain
number of hours of work will always be required to provide what we need. We
just have to redefine jobs. What results do we want? What values? What
policies? What he wants is a floor, so people who are willing to take
responsibility for their lives and their kids can do it with a basic level of
income and benefits.
A big question is how to see
beyond our current political system. Reorienting how we define and value work will
require government intervention. Government is built to be slow, stable, and
thoughtful. We should see it as a “steerer and organizer” and less as a
provider. And we definitely want a healthy economy.
Stern admits to not knowing
how to get there. One of the givens he works with, though, is that a lot more
people are concerned and thinking about this, including many of the wealthy who
are concerned about social instability.
His biggest worry is the lack
of good ideas, and he hopes for a new generation of thinkers. We badly need a
great set of new ideas.
Anne Focke, 7/14/14
An audio recording of Stern’s
Town Hall talk can be found here:
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